SFFMP 191: Most Popular Science Fiction and Fantasy Sub-Genres and Analyzing Data Guy’s SWFA Slides
On this week’s show, Jeff, Jo, and Lindsay discussed the information on Data Guy’s slides from his 2018 SFWA presentation in May. The slides are up here if you want to take a look. They also discussed some of the news in the indie world this summer and how the Amazon hammer has been coming down on those partaking in Kindle Unlimited shenanigans. Here are Lindsay’s notes (but you’ll get more out of just looking at the slides!). Also, the tool Jo mentions partway through the episode is KDP Rocket.
Notes from the SFWA 2018 slides:
Adult SF/F sales peaked around 2009 and then, according to Nielson/NPD Bookscan, have been on the decline since.
Result? The SF/F sections in bookstores shrank and author advances did too.
It’s true that after 2009, print sales dropped twice as far as in most other book genres, but digital sales have taken up the slack. While only 25% of overall sales for traditional publishers are ebooks, it’s different with SF/F. Ebooks make up 37% of traditionally published purchases. Add in SF/F audiobook sales, and things seem to be even or even slightly on the rise.
And on the indie/small press side…
SF&F sales by traditional publishers have become the minority. Big Five takes 21% of the pie, Amazon publishing imprints 7%, other small/med/large publishers 9%, and then indie self-pub w/o imprint, with their own imprints, or in indie self-pub collectives make up more 52% (the rest uncategorized stuff).
This is units sold. He looks at dollars earned too.
The average purchase price for a trad published SF/F ebook was $8.04 (May 2017 – April 2018)
For self-pub and Amazon imprints: $3.20 (sweet spot of $4 the highest with $5 right behind it).
Put them together and the average purchase price is $4.43.
How does KU factor in?
$30 million a year in US subscription revenue is from KU which accounts for 25% of non-traditional SF/F ebook dollar sales.
When it comes to money, self-pub SF/F authors are now earning a much larger share of the royalty dollars generated by SF&F books than traditionally published SF&F authors. SF/F sales are disproportionately ebook and audio now – digital. This may explain why incomes of traditionally published and self-published authors appear to be moving in opposite directions.
Most traditionally published SF/F ebooks purchased in the last 12 months were deep backlist titles published prior to 2015. Nontraditional SF/F ebook purchases were mostly frontlist and recent backlist (since 2015).
“What happens when the non-trad “deep backlist” fills in?”
Science Fiction Top subgenres by ebook sales:
- Military SF – over 4 million
- Adventure SF – just shy of 4 million
- Post-Apocalyptic – about 3.5 million
- Dystopian – about 3 million
- Space Opera – shy of 3 million
Toward the bottom: steampunk, alternative history, LGBT, Humorous
“Traditional publishers outperform in some SF categories but underperform in many of the highest selling ones.”
Fantasy Top subgenres by ebook sales:
- Paranormal & urban – over 11 million (PNR/romancy in there but top selling by almost a factor of 2)
- Epic fantasy – close to 6.5 million
- Sword & sorcery – 4 million
- Coming of Age – 3.5 million
- Romantic fantasy – 3 million
Toward the bottom: Alternate history, dragons & mythological creatures, humorous, Christian fantasy, Gaslamp
End stuff:
This means SF/F sales (print, ebook, audiobook) are actually significantly up overall from that supposed high point in 2009. A lot. They’ve doubled since 2010 with the majority of sales just going unreported right now and thus understating SF&F true popularity with readers.
Why? Speculation: new SF/F readers, old readers reading more, former used book readers now buying ebooks instead, or former library users brought in because ebooks are more affordably priced?
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